Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $227,662$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275,513.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(275,513.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,817$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,624.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 57.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,624.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,087$ on 2020-06-30

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,195$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,488.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 93.5)}}\) (asimptote \(46,488.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $354$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(27.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(362.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,811$ on 2020-06-30

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $199,906$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,709.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(179,709.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,131$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,815.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,815.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,664$ on 2020-06-30

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,758$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(412 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,811.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,811.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(0.536 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,340$ on 2020-06-30

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $49,109$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(42.4 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{209,089.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(209,089.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,943$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(0.551 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,406$ on 2020-06-30

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $190,823$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(5.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,881.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(271,881.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,649$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(42 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,939.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,939.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,408$ on 2020-06-30

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,088$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,227.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(105,227.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $113$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.7)}}\) (asimptote \(196.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,411$ on 2020-06-30

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,244$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,713.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,713.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $320$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(99.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(297.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,583$ on 2020-06-30

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 94%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Singapore recovered 74%
Turkey recovered 73%
Georgia recovered 68%
Sri Lanka recovered 66%
Qatar recovered 60%
Yemen recovered 38%
United Arab Emirates recovered 37%
Tajikistan recovered 29%
Iran recovered 19%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,639$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(2.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,277.8}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 41.4)}}\) (asimptote \(8,277.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(59.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(80.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $164$ on 2020-06-30

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,850$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(6.35 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(115.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,307.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(11,307.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $282$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(103 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{272.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(272.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $955$ on 2020-06-30

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,907$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,817.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 102.8)}}\) (asimptote \(42,817.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(7.64 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,381$ on 2020-06-30

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $928$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(165 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{888.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(888.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-30

Best fit exponential: \(4.83 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(14.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $119$ on 2020-06-30