Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $227,662$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275,513.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 87.8)}}\) (asimptote \(275,513.9\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,817$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,624.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 57.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,624.3\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,087$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $46,195$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,488.6}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 93.5)}}\) (asimptote \(46,488.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $354$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(27.2 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{362.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.4)}}\) (asimptote \(362.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,811$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $199,906$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.74 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179,709.2}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 36.8)}}\) (asimptote \(179,709.2\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,131$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,815.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,815.5\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,664$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $26,758$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(412 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,811.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.9)}}\) (asimptote \(41,811.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $87$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(0.536 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.5\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,340$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $49,109$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(42.4 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{209,089.0}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 132.4)}}\) (asimptote \(209,089.0\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,943$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(0.551 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,406$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $190,823$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(5.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{271,881.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(271,881.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,649$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(42 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,939.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,939.0\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $58,408$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,088$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,227.1}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.8)}}\) (asimptote \(105,227.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $113$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(2.79 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{196.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 87.7)}}\) (asimptote \(196.5\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,411$ on 2020-06-30
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,244$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(4.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,713.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 40.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,713.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $320$ on 2020-06-30
Best fit exponential: \(99.5 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297.1}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(297.1\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,583$ on 2020-06-30